Expected Seasonal Dollar Rally Has Not Yet Arrived

It is May, and traditionally in the May through August period, there is a correction in the currencies which have been strong during the winter and spring months. This is the time of year when the declining currencies often get a chance to rally and collect themselves before the Autumn season when renewed seriousness grips international currency traders, and the weak currencies usually begin to decline again.

If the US dollar is going to rally, it should have begun to do so and its window of opportunity is shrinking with each passing day. The answer to the question is probably that many currency traders believe that the U.S. fundamentals are not going to improve on a broad basis and additionally, the U.S. is not raising interest rates, while many other countries are signaling upcoming interest rate increases.

This is because the economies of almost all developed countries, and all of the rapidly developing countries are growing much faster than the U.S. economy. With slow economic growth comes decreased demand for money. With slower economic growth, money leaves U.S. investments and moves to foreign shores to obtain better returns in foreign stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities.

If the dollar is to rally it should do so soon. The U.S. will be helped by a weaker dollar and exports will rise, the big question is, will imports stop rising so fast? If the U.S. consumers slow down their spending spree, and if the U.S. slows down the Iraq war spending, then the dollar can put on an extensive rally. Until then, any rallies in the U.S. dollar are likely to be short [for a few weeks] and not very sweet.

These articles are for informational purposes only and are not intended to be a solicitation, offering or recommendation of any security. Guild Investment Management does not represent that the securities, products, or services discussed in this web site are suitable or appropriate for all investors. Any market analysis constitutes an opinion that may not be correct. Readers must make their own independent investment decisions.

The information in this article is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation, or which would subject Guild Investment Management to any registration requirement within such jurisdiction or country.

Any opinions expressed herein, are subject to change without notice. In addition, there are many market, currency, economic, political, business, technological and other risks that are beyond our control. We make reasonable efforts to provide accurate content in these articles; however, some content and some of the assumptions, formulas, algorithms and other data that impact the content may be inaccurate, outdated, or otherwise inappropriate. In addition, we may have conflicts of interest with respect to any investments mentioned. Our principals and our clients may hold positions in investments mentioned on the site or we may take positions contrary to investments mentioned.

Guild's current and past market commentaries are protected by copyright. Apart from any use permitted under the Copyright Act, you must not copy, frame, modify, transmit or distribute the market commentaries, without seeking the prior consent of Guild.

Mr. Guild founded Guild Investment Management in 1971. Prior to founding the company he was an analyst at a bank and a hedge fund.


For more information on global investment visit http://www.howtoinvestglobally.com

For more information on Guild investment management services visit http://www.guildinvestment.com

Guild Investment Management, Inc., is a registered investment advisor. All material presented herein is believed to be reliable. Investment recommendations and opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice.

You can also read our past periodic market and economic commentary articles by going to the Commentary Archive on our web site www.guildinvestment.com